European countries are increasingly seriously considering what the defence of the continent would look like if the US reduced its role in NATO. The question has resurfaced following decisions by the Donald Trump administration to scale back American military presence in Europe.
The Pentagon has already announced the withdrawal of around 5,000 American troops from Germany, and a planned deployment of 4,000 soldiers to Poland was also cancelled. The decision has prompted anxiety from European partners, especially among nations in Eastern NATO.
According to The Economist, Europe is examining a contingency defence model in the event that American leadership within NATO weakens. The focus is on a northern-Baltic axis — namely the United Kingdom, the Scandinavian and Baltic countries, the Netherlands, and Poland — which view Russia as the most direct threat.
One potential pillar of such a model is the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a military coalition led by the United Kingdom. It consists of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, UK. According to the British government, this structure is a “agile” and rapidly responsive force in Northern Europe, North Atlantic and Baltic. The major problem facing Europe is its reliance on American military infrastructure, through which the US is in control of vital logistics, intelligence, command and control, satellite technology and troop coordination. Without these, European armies would face a far more difficult task in responding quickly and in an organised manner to a major crisis.
NATO formally remains the primary framework for collective defence. Article 5 stipulates that an attack on one member can be treated as an attack on all, but the process involves political assessment and a decision by the allies.
For this reason, Europe’s “Plan B” is currently seen as a fallback safety net rather than a full replacement for NATO. The reality is stark: Europe can spend more on defence, but a rapid replacement of America’s role in the short term is nearly impossible.
