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Walmart Issues Cautious Outlook as Rising Fuel Costs Squeeze Consumer Budgets

Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, reported solid first-quarter revenue growth but issued a weaker-than-expected financial outlook for the year, raising questions about the health of the American consumer as elevated fuel prices continue to strain household budgets.
Shares dropped following the announcement as the retail giant’s revenue in the first quarter increased 7.3% to $177.8bn beating analyst expectations and US comparable store sales increased 4.1% in line with expectations, though profit per share forecast for the entire year of between $2.75-$2.85 missed analysts expectations of $2.91.
Walmart’s Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey highlighted a particularly concerning trend: customers visiting Walmart and Sam’s Club petrol stations are now filling up with fewer than ten gallons per visit on average for the first time since 2022. “That’s an indication of stress,” Rainey told investors on an earnings call. He noted that higher tax refunds earlier in the year had partially cushioned consumers from the impact of rising fuel costs, but warned that this buffer is now fading. “I think consumers are going to feel more of that pressure from higher fuel prices,” he said.
The results point to a growing divide in the US consumer market. While higher-income shoppers — those earning over $100,000 annually — continue spending confidently across many categories, lower-income consumers are becoming significantly more cautious. Walmart said its largest market share gains are now coming from the higher-income segment, a shift from the company’s traditional customer base.
To help offset the pressures on shoppers, Walmart announced it plans to direct savings from recent tariff reductions toward lowering prices in stores. Since the second half of 2025, the company has already cut prices on 7,200 items. For the current quarter, Walmart expects net sales to rise between 4% and 5%, with adjusted earnings per share of between $0.72 and $0.74.

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